What's Inside

The monthly Coresight Research US Retail Sales Outlook series tracks several major macroeconomic indicators and their likely effect on US retail sales. In this report, we analyze the latest available data as of May 19, 2025.

Alongside this report, you can access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download above.

Data in this research report include:

• Our projections for retail sales growth by month for the next 12 months
• Proprietary survey data on consumer sentiment in the US
• US actual retail sales versus model-predicted sales
• US unemployment rate and labor force participation rate
• US average hourly wages for all private-sector employees
• US annualized real disposable income per capita

Other relevant research:

• Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
• All our coverage of tariffs
• The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys. Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.